Sorry, jhd, I just don't see how the whole deal would be at risk with a NO vote. If U's are unhappy because JMW decides to "strictly" follow APR, well there's not much they can do about it.
The EC "proposed" a 70/30 split, but it concedes that JMW may change it. We just don't know yet - but, as claw has pointed out - she almost certainly will change it if P's vote NO.