Replies to post #130942 on Biotech Values

[ariadndndough]

peter i agree with you totally. no way would i short aria also and its also my largest postion.

way to good of pipeline here with two approvals expected next year.

dough

[DewDiligence]

I think you make a few dangerous assumptions:

[Ponatinib] sales of $500m in a few years are essentially a lock…

What if something strikes out of the blue, such as what happened to Tysabri in 2005? Tallying future pharmaceutical sales of any kind as a lock is unwise, IMO.

The generic filing on Sprycel I view as noise.

How can you say this when no one has even seen the Paragraph-IV pleadings yet? Generic Sprycel would certainly put some additional pressure on Ponatinib in the second-line setting, although we can argue about the magnitude of the effect.

Cancer treatment is not like high cholesterol - managed care can encourage the use of Gleevec, but they can't require it.

Says who? Reimbursement policy for expensive cancer drugs is in flux and could easily become more restrictive—perhaps substantially so—by the time Ponatinib is on the US market.

[jq1234]

For 1st line, I'd think it would need to conduct randomized trial vs Gleevec. The outcome is anything but certain. Consider how effective Gleevec is, once it goes to generic, they are going to require patients on Gleevec first before trying anything else. People who complain about being put on Gleevec aren't get anywhere.