As far as mediation goes, I think the best the EC can hope for is to get the hedgies to take a significant haircut on their claims, nothing more. And one or more of the hedgies may be willing to do that to try to avoid a more disastrous litigation outcome that could result not only in the complete disallowance of their claims but also in the disgorgement of their profits as well.
But everyone also knows that the EC cannot speak for the SEC, which is certainly doing its own investigation into these issues. The SEC simply cannot ignore insider trading claims that have been determined to be colorable by a judge. So the possibility of profit disgorgemnet will still be out there regardless of what happens in mediation.
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