Replies to post #13460 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[rurik]

I would disagree with you. After reading DD on the value board for many years, I, for one, would never venture to put words in DD's mouth. He's always been very capable of saying what he really means.

[BTH]

I simply read DD's posture on ARIA in the portfolio that he runs is this: it is too speculative, too much beta, and does not fit into the overall objectives into the fund.

Maybe I am wrong.

Fact of the matter is a fund manager is obligated to stick to the charter of the fund. If the idea of the fund is more conservative, despite what many here believe in terms of Ariad being a "conservative" investment due to what we know about Ponatinib, the fact of the matter is this: Ariad is still speculative....big time. You cant throw highly speculative positions with no income into a fund whose charter is growth & income.

[JJM760]

If DD believes he has missed ARIA, it follows that he thinks the train has left the station and there is litle upside in chasing it

I highly doubt that he believes there is little upside from here. He knows this company better than 90% of the people on this board (myself included). IMO, if the overall market doesn't tank, Ariad is conservatively worth $15-$20 on the approval of Ponatnib alone. By that time, we should have a very good idea how 113 is doing, so you do the math. BOTH DRUGS OWNED BY ARIAD EXCLUSIVELY! I will remind you that DNDN went to $57 (5 bil MC) on Provenge approval and HGSI to $32 on Benlysta (and Benlysta was/is partnered with GSK).

FWIW, I had this very discussion with him some of the BV guys back in Feb when Aria was trading at a MC of 735 million. See post# 115181 where I was pounding the table with both fists that Ariad was cheap. Most did not agree that "a company like Ariad was cheap with a MC of 735 mil". Well apparently it was. Dew and the boys at BV are some of (if not) the sharpest Bio investors on the web. I read pretty much every one of their posts (as well as the Global Demographic) every night. It is no coincidence that my investing success has increased substantially since I started reading BV. But they are not always right, nobody is. He has said numerous times, he can't own every stock he follows, so I would take it for just that. I actually think he likes the prospects for the company.

BTW, I had to Wiki that Occam's razor reference. Nice one! ;0)

[BTH]

I will say, I believe the "easiest " money here has already been made - for those that were fortunate enought to buy ARIA at sub-1-2 dollars. I would love for ARIA to move up another 500% to 1,000% like it has since 2008-2009, but, I just dont see it happening.

Hell, I would be freakin thrilled to get 100% from here. 200% would be killer. A 50% move from here gets us to north of $15.00 which I wouldbe very happy about.

So, yes....the easy money has been made here IMO. Which was a huge reason I sold at 13.40-13.50 (which was mostly dumb luck, and a little skill..lol).