Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[JJM760]

If DD believes he has missed ARIA, it follows that he thinks the train has left the station and there is litle upside in chasing it

I highly doubt that he believes there is little upside from here. He knows this company better than 90% of the people on this board (myself included). IMO, if the overall market doesn't tank, Ariad is conservatively worth $15-$20 on the approval of Ponatnib alone. By that time, we should have a very good idea how 113 is doing, so you do the math. BOTH DRUGS OWNED BY ARIAD EXCLUSIVELY! I will remind you that DNDN went to $57 (5 bil MC) on Provenge approval and HGSI to $32 on Benlysta (and Benlysta was/is partnered with GSK).

FWIW, I had this very discussion with him some of the BV guys back in Feb when Aria was trading at a MC of 735 million. See post# 115181 where I was pounding the table with both fists that Ariad was cheap. Most did not agree that "a company like Ariad was cheap with a MC of 735 mil". Well apparently it was. Dew and the boys at BV are some of (if not) the sharpest Bio investors on the web. I read pretty much every one of their posts (as well as the Global Demographic) every night. It is no coincidence that my investing success has increased substantially since I started reading BV. But they are not always right, nobody is. He has said numerous times, he can't own every stock he follows, so I would take it for just that. I actually think he likes the prospects for the company.

BTW, I had to Wiki that Occam's razor reference. Nice one! ;0)