For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: Long on 10/4/11 SPX at 1123.95, Sold 10/18/11 at 1225.38 = gain 9.02% Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11 Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat
Above is the daily QQQ chart. The reason we are looking at the QQQ chart is that sometimes we can gleam information that doesn’t show up on the SPY. Since both QQQ and SPY in general trade in concert, then if QQQ pulls back, also SPY may follow. Intermediate term the picture remains bullish, but the short term QQQ is showing signs that a pull back may begin. The Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator is showing a negative divergence short term (we have pointed out previous divergences in the McClellan Oscillator on chart), the NYSE McClellan Oscillator is not showing a divergence. Also on Monday’s new high the volume drop near 30% compared to previous high of last week and a short term bearish sign. The 10 day moving average of the Tickq is also showing a negative divergence. There is a gap near 55 that could get filled and something to watch for. If the QQQ pulls back to 55 range and finds support, then we may look for a bullish signal to develop on the SPX as the intermediate term trend remains up. Sold 10/18/11 at 1225.38 for 9.02% gain, Long SPX at 1123.95 on 10/4/11,
Above is a shorter term view of the gold equity markets. Above is the daily Bullish percent index for the Gold miners. The bullish Percent index measure the percent of stocks in the index that are on Point and Figure buy signal. In early October the percent of stocks that where on Point and Figure buy signals in the Gold Miners index stood at 13%; Currently that percentage has risen to 30%. Therefore the Gold Miners index is getting stronger. The second window from the bottom is the Slow Stochastics of the Bullish Percent of the Gold Miners index (BPGDM). Normally when the Slow Stochastics trades below 20 and turns up it makes a “B” line to 80 and we would expect that to happen here which would require the percent of stocks on Point and Figure to rise rapidly. The bottom window is the XAU/GLD ratio. When this ratio is rising then gold stocks are outperforming gold and normally considered a bullish environment. Right now the XAU/GLD ratio is trending sideways which is considered Neutral but a close above the blue line would turn bullish for both gold and gold stocks.
Above is the Monthly chart of the XAU/GOLD ratio. Monday when we posted this chart the monthly Slow Stochastics set at 18.65 and today it hit 19.27 and rising. The month of October ends next Tuesday and if the Slow Stochastics of the XAU/GOLD ratio closes above 20 a bullish signal will be triggered for the XAU gold stocks. The first part of the two part signal requires that the monthly RSI of the XAU/GOLD ratio hit 35 or lower; which has been met. We also have done this type bullish setup for the monthly HUI/GOLD; GDX/GOLD and SPTGD/GOLD and all have triggered bullish signals where the monthly slow stochastics have turned up and closed above 20. For huge moves to occur, sentiment must be in extremes (it is), COT for Commercials is at extremes (Commercials are hording gold) and the Rydex Precious Metals traders are on the side lines (and they are). Long SLV at 29.48 on 10/20/11. Long GDXJ at 36.24 on 9/21/11. Long GLD at 173.59 on 9/21/11. Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop 170 hit = gain 15.5% . Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in NXG, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long NXG average of 2.26. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.
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