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The Ord Oracle By Tim Ord (10/19/11)_TY_George


* Wednesday, October 19, 2011


For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: Long on 10/4/11 SPX at 1123.95, Sold 10/18/11 at 1225.38 = gain 9.02%
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat



Above is our short term view of the SPY. Yesterday there was a surge in volume near 30% higher then the previous day and suggested short term exhaustion in the market. Also the McClellan Oscillator showed a negative divergence and a short term bearish sign. Previous times over the last several months this combination has occurred the market reversed so we took our 9% gain. If the market does not reverse near term then that will be a bullish longer term sign. What could be developing here is a Head and Shoulder bottom where the Head is the October 4 low and if the market does pull back here then that could develop the Right Shoulder that may be similar in price structure to Left Shoulder. For now we will remain flat. Sold 10/18/11 at 1225.38 for 9.02% gain, Long SPX at 1123.95 on 10/4/11,





Above is an intermediate term view of the SPX. A lot of the time the NYSE McClellan Summation index will show a divergence at turning points in the SPX. We have labeled above the negative divergence in the NYSE McClellan Summation index at the May and July highs. A positive divergence occurred on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator at the double bottom in SPX at the August and October lows. The short term picture shows exhaustion and depending how far the market pulls back will determine what the next trade will be. If SPX pulls back to 1120 range then we may conclude that a Head and Shoulder bottom is forming. If SPX finds support near 1190 then that would be more bullish for short term. Sold 10/18/11 at 1225.38 for 9.02% gain, Long SPX at 1123.95 on 10/4/11,





The pattern forming on GDX appears to be another “Rising Wedge”. The Previous “Rising Wedge” in GDX occurred in August that had a downside target to 54 range which was met. The current “Rising Wedge” started at the October 4 low and ended at the October 14 high. “Rising Wedge” Pattern have downside target to where they began and in the current “Rising Wedge” pattern would have a target to the October 4 low near 50 range and be the place we will look for a buy signal. The Bullish Percent index of the Gold Miners (Bottom window) has had a bullish crossover and the test of the 50 low most likely will put in a positive divergence along with a positive divergence in the daily RSI. Remember the monthly GDX/GOLD ratio is forecasting a huge move in GDX in the next 12 months or so. For these huge moves to occur, sentiment must be in extremes (it is), COT for Commercials is at extremes (Commercials are hording gold) and the Rydex Precious Metals traders are on the side lines (and they are).
Long GDXJ at 36.24 on 9/21/11. Long GLD at 173.59 on 9/21/11. Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Sold on 8/8/11 SLV at 38.32 for gain of 11.4%-Long SLV at 34.39 on 7/5/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GDX at 57.01- stopped at 59.50 for gain 4.4%. Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop 170 hit = gain 15.5% . Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in NXG, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long NXG average of 2.26. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html

George.