Replies to post #114715 on InterDigital Inc (IDCC)

[captainslog]

Price action for IDCC will not be contained to a NOK resolution as a sole event, IMO.

Once the NOK award is known, and I think IDCC has won a substantial amount, the price action will be influenced by the domino effect. NOK then SAMSUNG then LG. NOK, then almost all other players who don't have litigation issues with IDCC.

The lack of large, more than 10% marketshare, licensees has always hindered IDCC in their licensing efforts. With NOK and SAM signed, the doors are open and I don't think there will be much retacement of the IDCC price as I think good news will come more quickly than it has in the past.

We also know that Panasonic is in talks with IDCC. Once they sign, many of the the other Japanese firms that haven't signed will sign.

The LU case is another case that will resolve, I think, with a positive domino affect on other firms that will sign up for 3G with IDCC.

With NOK 2G resolved, we will see new patterns of price action for IDCC and it won't be like it has been for the past several years.

[Skeptic]

Let's take this analysis a step further - let's add some "odds".

First, I place the odds that IDCC gets "something" at 80%. Should IDCC get nothing, I expect a quick trip to $8.

Now, let's use bulldzr's scenarios and add odds although I am going to change the price ranges to reflect my best guesses:

$100M w/ no 3G: $19-21 (this will be viewed as neutral)
odds 25% (we're adding 2 bucks per share in cash)

$200M w/ no 3G (likely imo): $23-25
odds 50% (we're adding ~4 bucks per share in cash plus some hysteria factor)

$400M (as some believe) w/ no 3G: $28-$32
odds 10%

$200M with 3G: $32-40
odds 15%

Now, we can estimate a fair value for this thing based on the odds...

I come up with 21.92 so it looks like a buy to me, but I'd probably stick with 20 strike calls.

[GE_Jim]

Bulldzr,

“But is this close” your right there. Nokia pays outright, appeals, or settles.

If straight forward 2g only. Hoping for 200 mil plus. If not, if the reward is less than that than I’m going to have to accept the I/P, as good as it maybe, does not have the commercial value I thought it had, or perhaps more to the point what Idcc can get for it. That stage will be set with the ICC decision.

Back to the three, Straight pay out seems the least likely. My opinion on this is like a Y in the road. Either IDCC and Nokia become friends or they fight to the bitter end. Right now it appears the bitter end is winning. If so there is no reason not to appeal from a tactical position, no, I also believe they can’t win the appeal, but time is a issue here as well and extending this issue can only help Nokia while creating pressure on IDCC to resolve for preservation sake. { preservation would include 3 g at the rates Nokia would like, minus a large discount from the arb for the signing}. Bill has mentioned something like 20 companies lined up, how much is that worth a month? How long can Nokia stall? I didn’t think Ericy would go 10, didn’t think the JPO would go 4 plus, didn’t think the we would still be waiting on Nokia 2 years plus after the Ericy settlement, and I don’t know how much dog and pony, smoke and mirror delay’s Nokia can come up with. If somebody said they could stretch this well into 2006 I would not be able to call them a liar. We have all been very wrong on all previous time lines here.

Regarding price post arb. There is a lot to this as you well know. Far too much to write here.

Let’s try simple statements.

2g award without appeal. Well the higher the award the higher the price. Don’t think it will have enough push to break the previous double top in the 28 range from the arb itself.

With appeal, a quick spike and fall out { range to be, again, on reward payout.}

A no nonsense 3g settlement, regardless of 2G money paid, that would be up to and including zero money paid for 2g currently owed. 80 to 120 per share within 18 mo’s depending on contracts signed.

Again a lot more to all this, what we need is the direction from the ICC. Then we can move to the next inning. And expand upon this company's future.

IMO

[dooger]

IDCC ARBITRATION RESOLUTION & SUBSEQUENT STOCK PRICE

If we have all the IP we claim to have for 2G and 3G then I believe we could and should receive $400m and a 3g contract. After that the stock price should be well over $40 or $50 per share or we have been wasting a lot of years waiting for this event. I don't believe the majority of investors on this board have gone thru all this agony for a mere $30 to $40 per share.

The Dooger