Replies to post #127959 on Biotech Values

[go seek]

How can the MNTA's case be proven or not
w/o the discovery? Seems like the Judge would allow, so the facts are determined for all and to prevent unwarranted damage to MNTA.

The sealed bit of this case must hold a partial key to a final determination.

Judge practiced as lawyer or many years in MA...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nathaniel_M._Gorton

[RC2]

Re: MNTA-Amphastar settlement musings, revised

If the Judge allows limited expedited discovery (which will be decided on or about Oct 20), I think the suit will probably be settled out of court.

Could you expand on what you think MNTA will "discover" that will prompt Amphastar (and MNTA, to be sure) to settle out of court?

tia.

[mcbio]

Re: MNTA-Amphastar settlement musings (revised for iwfal’s changes)

If the Judge allows limited expedited discovery (which will be decided on or about Oct 20), I think the suit will probably be settled out of court. The settlement terms might be something along the lines of the following: i) Amphastar delays launching until the earlier of 2014 or FDA approval and launch of a third generic; AND ii) Amphastar pays MNTA a 20% royalty on sales (of which no portion goes to NVS).

The FTC will challenge the first provision, of course, but the FTC has not been able to make such challenges stick in court.

How do you see MNTA's share price reacting in such a scenario? I imagine it may come down to how soon the market sees FDA approval and launch of a third generic (I assume you're not counting an authorized generic from SNY as being a "third" generic) and what level of sales you ultimately see from aL and any others. On the third generic, I don't see it necessarily being too distant for Teva getting approval and launching tL given that Amphastar was able to get their approval now. I have no idea on what projections are for aL. Is it likely that the generic Lovenox market will be roughly divided up evenly amongst the number of entrants in due time? If so, that would still likely be a 20% royalty on at least a few $100M in tL sales due to MNTA in your scenario I would imagine, on top of the royalties MNTA would be due from NVS.