Replies to post #5197 on General Stock Ideas

[bigworld]

MF4: I am not always in front of my trading platform so I do very little short term trading. I am more of an intermediate swing trader. Since the 1101 bottom in early August we retested the lows 5 times before 1101 was briefly breached to the downside to get chartists to sell or short before the strong reversal rally we saw. Since then we've seen early morning and mid afternoon sell offs which are soon reversed. The retail investor is selling in fear with the high volatility. Professionals and insiders have been heavy buyers. The Dollar Index rose dramitically since early August, as has the Treasury market. Both are retreating now which is bullish for equities.The jobs report might send us into another brief tailspin tomorrow, but that is just another gift horse buying opportunity. I don't want to get too technical but if you look at the ratio of the volatile Russell 2000 to the 10 Year Treasury we are set up for the rally I have been prediciting. But because it is a counter rally within a secular bear market I am only @ 50% invested to the long side. I have taken profits on TLT so I have more cash to commit to equities if we see another pullback. Unless we get a Euro collapse or a sovereign default we aren't going to drop another 200 points on the S&P just yet. Not with the VIX in the mid 40's. Secular bear markets are noted for their wild fluctuations, which makes day trade scapling difficult. I prefer to accumulate in increments to take advantage of dollar cost averaging and because nobody ever knows for sure when we've hit a bottom or a top. But my analysis of the current circumstances indicates to me we are likely to get a melt-up rally until year end and perhaps into early 2012 before the bottom falls out again. I will have sold by then and I will beging accumulation short positions in things like PSQ to prepare for the next panic sell off. These moves are meant to corral 15-20% profits over a period of moneth. Perhaps a screen watcher could do better by scalping. But I'm content with it.