DegenG- your approach to be putting odds on the different scenarios is a very good thing to do. That helps one analyze the risk/reward ratio. I just have different probabilities for the same time frames.
A. in the next 3 months, I would give ERHE about a 25% chance of an unexpected announcement. Kind of like the Chad thing that came right out of nowhere. I think they have enough irons in the fire that we will have a 1 in 4 chance of something taking a step forward. Yes, optimistic but enough of a probability that I don't want to be out of the stock in the short run.
B. 4 - 6 months. I give Total about 90% chance of starting the drilling of block 1. Who knows if they will put out any more announcements of when and what ship starts the drilling. I think ERHE gets a little bounce off of that news (once drilling actually commences).
C. 7 - 9 months. If I am right about B above, I am guessing we see a ramp up in share price as we get closer to the expected drilling results. Unfortunately, I don't have a strong opinion on the likelihood of Total discovering oil again. I would think it is a minimum of greater than 50% that they hit oil again. I think if Total tries to confirm net pay from Obo 1, we have an 85% or better chance of good news of oil being hit again. If they try drilling in a new prospect, I would put it closer to 60% of oil discovery. It is anyone’s guess on whether it will show commercial or not. I think Total will give a fairly strong opinion one way or another based on the next drilling results.
D. 10 - 12 months. I agree with your odds. About a 50/50 chance of ERHE doing some substantial step forward in one of their other endeavors beyond block 1 of the JDZ.
Beyond this time frame, I am fairly optimistic that something substantial will happen sooner than many here are predicting. I don't see Chad as being at least 2 years out. Yes, the JDZ was a major time delay and continues to be. I think when you deal with either the Chad (onshore) or IMO marginal fields, ERHE either finds an interested party to do their work or they don't. Once they find an interested party, I think the timeframe goes pretty quick. No need to wait for contracting a deep water rig. No need to hide results due to blocks close by not auctioned off yet, etc.
Bottom line is, I would put the odds of ERHE share price spiking to .75 - $1.00 in the next 12 months at about 75%. That is a risk/reward ratio that I am betting on as I have added to my position in the past 30 days.
With the current price in the .10 cent range and the CEO buying shares here, I am very comfortable that we are at or near a bottom with something positive happening in the next 6 months minimum.
Just my take.
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