I differ from your opinion mainly on the expected results from the upcoming drilling by Total. I think odds of success are even higher than you put forth. IMO they have enough info from OBO and our Phase I drilling (I believe they are in bed w/ SNP as to JDZ development) and the required experience and expertise to hone in right on the money re: OBO for the stated re-entry well so I put that percentage of success over 90% and to make the stated new exploratory well a successful operation as well to somewhere near 80%. If they don't have good results with the upcoming 2 wells, I will definitely lower my overall expectations for the JDZ by a considerable amount.
Following is not directed at you as you expressed pretty optimistic results but for those w/ high degree of anxiety I say there is no need to be pessimistic for the next 4-6 months. Should things prove negative there will still be plenty of time for pessimism later.
I tend to be very conservative on time lines for this investment but I am highly optimistic regarding the assets and expect to see results proving the fact.
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