Headache...
I agree with you that getting the "early detection" indication will take a very long-term trial, but that is just one indication. Another indication that will take a long-term trial is post-chemo/surgery follow-up. That is also a great indication for which a multi-year trial is needed. We'd have to do regular RECAF tests over a long period on patients who've just had a tumor removed, so we could track the correlation of RECAF levels to recurrence of the cancer.
But headache, you have to remember that those are important indications but by no means are they BOCX's "bread and butter" indication. The blockbuster indication for any cancer diagnostic, including RECAF, is general screening. That's why PSA, CEA, & PapSmears are the best sellers by far -- because they are given to patients who fall into certain broad demographics over & over & over again (ie; all males over 40 get PSA tests every time they go to the doctor, etc).
With that in mind, my view is that Abbott will not develop RECAF to replace PSA, CEA, etc, but rather to greatly enhance the accuracy of those tests. Trying to replace the current tests would be corporate suicide for Abbott Diagnostics as they would cannabilize some of their best-selling products. So, it makes sense to me that they would position RECAF to "piggyback" off current tests. I'm pretty sure management has suggested that before in filings or p.r's.
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