Replies to post #214172 on Wave Systems Corp. (fka WAVXQ)

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Assuming a price:sales ratio of four and revenues accruing @ $50 per seat, it would take 500 million seats to drive a market cap of $100 billion.

Now I'm headed back to Earth.

I would be blown away by a market cap of $1 billion. I can't believe we saw a market cap of $2.5 billion eleven years ago.






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rwk/rick mktcap,

while this is truly a waste of time, what the heck ...

first, I do not believe I am off by an order of magnitude.

Megacap companies have a tendency to come in at around 2 times sales, give or take (and at this point, whats a hundred million seats hear or there).

So, the "not insane" $100B mktcap likely requires about 50b in sales (mktcap:sales for the following) > T (165:125), AAPL (360:100), INTC (100:50), SYMC (12:6), MSFT (220:70). The general trend is in the area of 2-3 times sales, the range depending on margins.

RWK: On the order of magnitude my abacus says that $50B divided by $50/seat is a billion seats, i.e. fifty times a billion is fifty billion.

rick: Using my silly screening tools I cant find any indication that it would take anything less that 50B in sales to drop down to a $100B mktcap. But if its important I'm willing to cede that it might only take 660,000,000 seats at 50 a seat, or a paying seat for 10% of the planets population.

Msft does enjoy a 3x multiple as does AAPL, the first started with a monopoly that provided the very basis for computing as opposed to Wave's open standards widget (that the CEO already complains of enduring pricing pressure on) leads me to beleive I am being rather generous. The later (AAPL) enjoys the fruits of a near cultist proprietary closed empire of devices and content distribution, again ... an exception that proves the rule IMO.

Point is, $100B is totally insane (as is $10B, albeit an order of magnitude less insane).