1. Since multiple sources believe IDCC has essential 3G and 4G patents, do you believe QCOM will have to pay IDCC a royalty fee for their product/chip sales? If yes, what average % royalty rate would you estimate QCOM would have to pay IDCC over a 5 year period and what would the total 5 year royalty fee be? If no, why?
2. What royalty rate would you estimate IDCC could achieve for an LTE phone sold by Samsung?
3. What royalty rate would you estimate IDCC could achieve on average for the wireless industry excluding QCOM if they licensed 75% of the industry for the next 5 years based on predicted handset and terminal sells broken down by cellular standard implemented in the devices? Extrapolated based on your forecast of quantity of sales and prices, what 5 year sales total would you estimate?
The answer to all of these questions would be a complete WAG. Beyond the normal variables in such a calculation, the problem is Interdigital's track record. They have never been able to monetize their patents to the level that has reflected their real value. So yes, I do believe that it is highly probable that Interdigital has essential LTE patents but I thought the same was true for WCDMA, and half of the market still isnt paying and a significant percentage of the other half has ridiculously low rates.
I am sure that Qualcomm having to pay IDCC is on their radar....but it has been on their radar for the last ten years. If Interdigital were to remain independent, a 1-2% royalty down the road on LTE chipsets would only have a small impact on Q's bottom line and would hardly move the needle in any justification of an acquisition by Qualcomm.
Do you believe if Broadcom, Intel, Samsung or someone else bought IDCC they would not try to negotiate/renegotiate with QCOM based on a possible licensing/cross licensing exchange etc. as appropriate?
My understanding/belief is that acquired patents would not allow for a reopening of the various licenses is a two way street.
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