Replies to post #4903 on Momenta Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MNTA)

[DewDiligence]

If the Script numbers stay this good for the next two months I think we get big attention.

NVS/MNTA’s share of Lovenox outpatient scripts has reached a plateau in the mid 80s (#msg-66023490) and it’s unlikely to go higher. NVS/MNTA do not want to take more than about 55% of the US Lovenox market by dollar sales (#msg-65934604) lest they induce SNY to launch an authorized generic, which would result is less profit for NVS and MNTA.

In other words, you should not expect to see “big attention” paid to MNTA because of the Lovenox script data per se. There are, however, several positive events for MNTA shareholders that could occur at any time (#msg-64630031).

[investorgold2002]

• FDA approval of generic Copaxone.- IMHO, at least not happening in Q3. Unlikely but possible in Q4. Q1 2011-realistic. Fondaparinux was approved in July (I believe it was accepted in March 2009 under a "GIVE/priority review" which both Alchemia/Dr Reddy's claim reduces FDA review generally by half. Wheeler said ANDA is under active review and alluded to the FDA backlog as of Aug 1st week

• A partnership deal for an FoB program. -IMHO This is definitely not imminent. Not happening in Q3. Unlikely in Q4 too. I am basing this on the number & intensity of 'gasps' from wheeler when asked this question in a recent conf call.

• A partnership deal for M402 (or, less likely, for M118).
IMHO - This is also is not imminent. Since this company does not put out any time lines for their development pipeline, I am again having to base this on the number and the intensity of 'gasps' from wheeler when asked a question on M402 in a recent conf call.

• Monetization of MNTA’s Lovenox income stream.
I have not heard the management talk about it in any conf calls. I would like to see a link or reference to this in any filing.

Evaluation of such a deal depends on ton of things, what value NVS would offer, what is the perceived risk to Lovenox cashflows(TL likelihood & ability of MNTA's patents to block competitor), what tax benefit you may get, etc etc.


• A buyout offer.
IMHO - Very Unlikely. They have never ever mentioned in the 20 or so conf calls in past 12 months that they are exploring or are interested in an all out acquisition.
However this wouldn't preclude another company to make an unsolicited bid that the board would have to evaluate. I gave the example of TEVA (which has immediate upside if it were to acquire MNTA at even twice of today's price. IMHO, board would have to agree to such a price. one can argue all day long about FOB potential-lets face it, it is at least 4-5 years away, and the company has admitted that it is still in initial "research" stage. And who knows what clinical trials are needed for interchangeability)