Replies to post #23829 on GOLDBUGS AMEX Goldbugs Index (GOLD)

[starboy]

The fact that silver is holding on to 39.09, (as I type) is pretty awesome, considering Clive Maund's chart-based call for lower silver on an equities market breakdown; which we certainly saw today.

Significantly lower oil prices didn't drag it down either, or that silver is also an industrial metal.

Of course that doesn't mean it will hold if this downward 'correction' continues in the equity markets, which is based on the confluence of debt, and now expected lower growth in many major global economies.

There are some serious near and long term possibilities out there with the current and projected financial climate.

Renewed call for the Amero or some new basket-based reserve currency.
Defaults or bankruptcies at the local and state levels.
Deflation.
Civil unrest.
War(s) to distract from economic concerns, or, over commodities.

[DiscoverGold]

Clive Maund >>> Silver Market Update

* Monday, August 15, 2011


Silver held up surprisingly well during the stockmarket collapse - you will recall that we had expected it to take more of a beating - no doubt assisted by gold's sparkling performance, so that now, having held above strong support, and with a marked improvement in its COT structure over the past week, it is believed to be poised for a really strong upleg.



The 6-month chart for silver shows HUGE upside potential, with a powerful uptrend starting from right where we are now. If the interpretation of the wave count is correct (this can be a big "if" of course, but it does look very clear at this point), then the point we are at now is close to the trough of the wave 2 reaction that should now immediately lead to a strong wave 3 uptrend, all this following the 3-wave A-B-C correction shown on the chart. Even without reference to wave theories the chart certainly looks encouraging as silver managed to break above the quite strong resistance in the $39.00 - $39.50 zone on its wave 1 advance which is now functioning as a support level, in addition to which its moving averages are now in bullish alignment and it is not overbought on short to medium-term oscillators as made clear by the RSI and MACD indicators on the chart. Everything appears to be in place for a big rally to get going - "all systems go" as they used to say.



Further evidence that a big rally is brewing in silver is provided by the latest COT chart, which shows a surprisingly large reduction in Commercial short positions in just one week - the Commercials are getting out of the way, which signals a rally - and it may have just started with today's 85 cent rise.

http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=67

George.

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