Replies to post #6399 on Sino Agro Food Inc (fka SIAF)

[hyperboy262626]

Lee has done the math already....
May 27,2011 Stockholm
PE of 8 and .50 a share in earnings
(Lee) "Minimum $4 per share FY 2011"
So why the selling?
Are the stock compensated service companies just selling to make their weekly payroll?
They could have sold it all at 1.20.... why wait until .86 knowing that Siaf is so thinly traded and net tangible assets will
exceed $2 in the next 90 days?

[viking86]

Let me chime in in the discussion of one-product growth (arithmetic acc to Treit) vs. multi-product growth (geometric). While I am not sure which one is the easier way to make money (easy in the sense of requiring less know-how, effort and capital), I do think that being diversified with different products and technologies is safer in the long run while offering a potentially much stronger growth than possible with one or two related products.

One of the reasons I like SIAF much is b/c of its diversity (many parallel profit centers each with quasi unlimited growth potential) and ability to franchise out its technologies. In a simplistic way, I view SIAF as a company built on 3 different technologies: a) livestock feed technology leading to cattle and sheep.. farms, b) RAS technology leading to fish farms, and c) HST or horticulture technology leading to HU and asparagus farms.


Having owned two different franchises myself, I can see the growth potential of this multiple franchise concept that SIAF is following. If I compare it with some other mono-product (and non-franchisable) CGS companies I am more familiar with like CNAM (scrap processing), NEP (oil), YONG (fertilizer), GURE (bromine)..., I think SIAF offers certainly less risk and higher growth as an investment, at least for some one who can wait several years. Not to say that a company like NEP or GURE cannot grow as much or offers less LT appeal under certain circumstances as SIAF but having your eggs spread out in different baskets as is the case with SIAF offers statiscally speaking less risk and more growth potential.

With this in mind, I feel that SIAF has a "fairly" good chance of reaching its financial goals, maybe 80% to 90% in my opinion. Sure, the road to reaching the lofty revenue targets they have set for 2011, 2012 and 2013 (6x, 17x and 34x the 2010 revenue of continuing ops !) is still a very bumpy one and requires good (but not perfect) execution on many different fronts since a setback in one direction can be compensated by overreach in one or two other directions.

Nice thing is investors are also paid (hey, divi is payable in cash and shares in a few years) while they wait to see their money blossom and turn into a rubyred Dragon Fruit hehe...