Replies to post #123935 on Biotech Values

[Regulardoc]

If I can add on...any idea what these numbers would be if one "backed -out" price increases? TEVA has not been shy about raising prices significantly for the last several years. I am guessing that a lot of the "growth" is not organic or increase in usage, but primarily related to higher pricing.

Thanks

[DewDiligence]

what was the original reasoning for comparing/contrasting Tysabri vs. Copaxone? Why not think of Copaxone within the usual ABCR competitive basket?

Tysabri was considered a bigger threat to Copaxone than the interferon drugs were. The interferons, as a group, have been steadily losing share in the US market.

Do you expect Copaxone to post as impressive of a growth rate?

Adjusted for inventory stocking (which causes moderate swings from quarter to quarter) Copaxone sales in the US market will probably continue to grow at a nice clip due to price increases. The price increases will likely continue until NVS/MNTA launch their generic.

I suspect it's losing more patients to Gilenya.

Please see the chart in my next post. Regards, Dew

[DewDiligence]

How does Gilenya affect Copaxone?

According to NVS’ 2Q11 CC, 55% of US Gilenya patients were previously
taking no drug for MS, and 45% of Gilenya patients switched from another
drug. Of the 45% who switched, ~38% (i.e. 17% of US Gilenya patients)
switched from Copaxone, as can be seen from the chart below. Thus, each
US patient start on Gilenya is subtracting 0.17 from the number of
patients taking Copaxone. This number increased from NVS’ estimate
of 0.125-0.15 patients six months ago (#msg-59293907).



Source: http://www.novartis.com/downloads/investors/event-calendar/2011/2011-07-novartis-q2-presentation.pdf (slide #39)