Replies to post #10286 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[bladerunner1717]

Teton,

Good point. The CEO of Cortex, Roger Stoll, once remarked: "Sometimes bad things happen to good drugs." As CEO of Cortex, he was certainly in a good position to know. One single anomaly in an animal study that was revealed after a successful Phase II had already been completed has virtually destroyed almost all value in the company, as it now trades as a bulletin board stock for $.08/share. A word of caution is always wise. Unforeseen events can always surprise us and knock us down. I guess that's why they're "unforeseen."


Bladerunner

[biomaven0]

an event or two that would be both (a) unexpected and (b) plausible, and which would have the effect of knocking the SP down a lot

I can think of a lot of such events - we are talking biotech here!

For rida, for example, we might suddenly see OS trending sharply down and the FDA reneging on their SPA. '113 hasn't even hit the clinic yet, and although the safety bar is very low because you are dealing with a uniformly fatal disease, there still is a bar. So a bunch of unlucky events or some unexpected toxicity and the drug could be in trouble.

I'm not saying those events are likely, but they certainly are plausible. Pona, by contrast looks pretty bullet-proof at this stage.

Peter