Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[biomaven0]

an event or two that would be both (a) unexpected and (b) plausible, and which would have the effect of knocking the SP down a lot

I can think of a lot of such events - we are talking biotech here!

For rida, for example, we might suddenly see OS trending sharply down and the FDA reneging on their SPA. '113 hasn't even hit the clinic yet, and although the safety bar is very low because you are dealing with a uniformly fatal disease, there still is a bar. So a bunch of unlucky events or some unexpected toxicity and the drug could be in trouble.

I'm not saying those events are likely, but they certainly are plausible. Pona, by contrast looks pretty bullet-proof at this stage.

Peter