Replies to post #122458 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

BIOD—You don't think a stat sig decrease in hypoglycemic events, particularly severe events, for an ultra-fast acting insulin compared to a fast acting insulin could be a meaningful differentiation angle if borne out in clinical trials?

I don’t think a statsig reduction per se in the hypoglycemia rate is a commercially meaningful differentiation; rather, what’s needed, IMO, for commercial differentiation is an impressive absolute reduction in the hypoglycemia rate with no ancillary problems from the new formulation.

Moreover, if one company can succeed at developing the kind of product described above, the chances are good that others can too. So the likely outcome—if these products work at all—is several new branded drugs competing for one segment of the insulin market at a time when the insulin market will be exposed to increasing cost pressures from managed care and the availability of biosimilars.

All told, I think it’s a mediocre business proposition.