For 30 to 90 days horizons for SPX: Flat. Monitoring purposes Gold: Gold ETF GLD long at 134.43 on 12/17/10, stopped at 145 for 7.4% gain. Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat
The Bollinger bands for the SPY are calibrated for a weekly timeframe in the chart above. In general when the weekly mid Bollinger band is trend down (currently weekly mid Bollinger band is trending down) then the ticks reach to a more oversold lower level both on the 50 day EMA and the 20 day MA (blue horizontal lines). When the ticks reach this lower level than a bounce is likely, even in a down market (as defined by the weekly mid Bollinger band). The weekly mid Bollinger band will be the first resistance level which comes in near 1320. It would be unusual for the decline to continue with the ticks already in extreme territory and still suggests some sort of low is forming here. Monday did have a 90% up day which is when 90% of the volume went to the up stocks and is what you normally see at the beginning of a rally. We would have expected the 1280 range to hold as support and to our surprise it did, the SPX closed at 1283.50, however our stop at 1270 was hit and we are back on the sidelines.
The intermediate term stick indicator remains in bullish territory and suggests a low is forming here. Today’s big volume suggests a possible “Selling Climax” occurred and similar to the day back in late January (see chart). When Volume jumps over 30% compared to the days around it, its suggests a “Selling Climax” day and a bullish sign short term. The Equity Put/Call ratio is still in bullish territory and the news surrounding FOMC meeting may have had its effect on the market short term. Today’s TRIN closed at 1.36 which is on the side of bullish neutral and not giving a lot of information. We will see how tomorrow trades but the bigger picture remains bullish.
GLD may have formed a “Rising Wedge” pattern over the last couple of months. Rising Wedge pattern have targets back to where the pattern began and in this case a move back near 144 range. Today’s decline on GLD looks like a “Break away” gap and suggest the decline will continue. If gold continues the pull back and GDX hold stead over the next couple of weeks or so then the GDX/GLD ratio will start to rising and suggests a strong move in GDX may be beginning. We will be watching this condition closely. We are long GDX on 5/10/11 at 57.01. Sold CGR at 2.18 on 3/10/11= gain 75%. Long CGR at 1.24 on 5/11/09. Long MNEAF 2.80 on 3/3/11(sold 2.95 gain 5). Long on US Silver (ussif) at .62 on 2/17/11 (sold 4/18/11 at .74 for 19% gain). We are long GLD at 134.43(stopped 145 for 7.4% gain). The smaller gold stocks should outperform the larger gold stocks. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. Sold AVARF on 12/13/10 at 4.06 for 61.1% gain; Long AVARF at 2.52 on 4/26/10. Sold VGZ at 2.93 for 39% gain. We are long MFN at 9.83 on 11/11/10(sold 16.25 for 65% gain). Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Sold RDNAF at .57 on 1/19/11 for 27% gain; Long RDNAF at .45 on 10/29/10. Long IROG at .52 on 5/10/10. Long PMU at .20 on 4/6/10 (sold 10% gain). We will hold as our core position in NXG, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long KRY at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long NXG average of 2.26. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.
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