The Ord Oracle By Tim Ord (06/15/11) TY George
* Wednesday, June 15, 2011
For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: FLAT
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 134.43 on 12/17/10, stopped at 145 for 7.4% gain.
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat
On Last Wednesday report we said, “The one we pay attention to is the 20 day EMA (second window from Bottom). When the weekly mid Bollinger Band is trending down (Red arrows on SPY chart) then the ticks reach more to an oversold level near 75 before a rally starts. We have identified with red arrows when the weekly mid Bollinger band is trending down and when the ticks bottomed out (again near 75). Over the last couple of days the mid weekly Bollinger band has turned down and suggests the 20 day EMA of the ticks may reach near 75 level before a bounce in the market may start.” Today the 20 day EMA of the ticks reached 17 and in the area where previous lows have formed in the past when the Mid Bollinger Band is trending down. We have observed in the past that it is common that signals in the market are either triggered on Tuesday or Friday’s. Tomorrow or Friday could be an important time for a signal. For now we will stay flat.
We are getting a response from the VIX which is the first response since the decline began. Today the VIX closed outside of the Bollinger band and shows the market is in an exhaustion mode. A close back inside of the Bollinger Band would be a bullish sign and will have to wait for tomorrow to see if that happens. The 5 day average of Equity put/call ratio has reached the level last recorded at the May 2010 low. The 5 day average of the ticks also reached at the level last seen at the May 2010 low and suggests an intermediate term low is forming. Staying flat for now.
The biggest rallies in GDX occurred when the weekly RSI of the GDX/GLD ratio was below 30 (this condition occurred at the 2000 and 2008 bottoms). Right now the RSI sets at 31.90 which is near the bullish level and suggest an intermediate rally is not far off. RSI Readings of 30 and below have produced the strongest rally. The bottom window is the Slow Stochastics %K (60) %D(3). When the Slow Stochastics closes above 20 a bullish signal will be triggered. Current reading on Stochastics is 11.19 and very oversold and suggest there is little downside from current levels on GDX. This potential bullish signal could develop this month. The intermediate picture is nearing a bullish signal. Long GDX at 57.01.
Sold CGR at 2.18 on 3/10/11= gain 75%. Long CGR at 1.24 on 5/11/09. Long MNEAF 2.80 on 3/3/11 (sold 2.95 gain 5%). Long on US Silver (ussif) at .62 on 2/17/11(sold 4/18/11 at .74 for 19% gain). We are long GLD at 134.43 (stop 145). The smaller gold stocks should outperform the larger gold stocks. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. Sold AVARF on 12/13/10 at 4.06 for 61.1% gain; Long AVARF at 2.52 on 4/26/10. Sold VGZ at 2.93 for 39% gain. We are long MFN at 9.83 on 11/11/10 (sold 16.25 for 65% gain). Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Sold RDNAF at .57 on 1/19/11 for 27% gain; Long RDNAF at .45 on 10/29/10. Long IROG at .52 on 5/10/10. Long PMU at .20 on 4/6/10( sold 10% gain). We will hold as our core position in NXG, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long KRY at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long NXG average of 2.26. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.
http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html
George.
* Wednesday, June 15, 2011
For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: FLAT
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 134.43 on 12/17/10, stopped at 145 for 7.4% gain.
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat
On Last Wednesday report we said, “The one we pay attention to is the 20 day EMA (second window from Bottom). When the weekly mid Bollinger Band is trending down (Red arrows on SPY chart) then the ticks reach more to an oversold level near 75 before a rally starts. We have identified with red arrows when the weekly mid Bollinger band is trending down and when the ticks bottomed out (again near 75). Over the last couple of days the mid weekly Bollinger band has turned down and suggests the 20 day EMA of the ticks may reach near 75 level before a bounce in the market may start.” Today the 20 day EMA of the ticks reached 17 and in the area where previous lows have formed in the past when the Mid Bollinger Band is trending down. We have observed in the past that it is common that signals in the market are either triggered on Tuesday or Friday’s. Tomorrow or Friday could be an important time for a signal. For now we will stay flat.
We are getting a response from the VIX which is the first response since the decline began. Today the VIX closed outside of the Bollinger band and shows the market is in an exhaustion mode. A close back inside of the Bollinger Band would be a bullish sign and will have to wait for tomorrow to see if that happens. The 5 day average of Equity put/call ratio has reached the level last recorded at the May 2010 low. The 5 day average of the ticks also reached at the level last seen at the May 2010 low and suggests an intermediate term low is forming. Staying flat for now.
The biggest rallies in GDX occurred when the weekly RSI of the GDX/GLD ratio was below 30 (this condition occurred at the 2000 and 2008 bottoms). Right now the RSI sets at 31.90 which is near the bullish level and suggest an intermediate rally is not far off. RSI Readings of 30 and below have produced the strongest rally. The bottom window is the Slow Stochastics %K (60) %D(3). When the Slow Stochastics closes above 20 a bullish signal will be triggered. Current reading on Stochastics is 11.19 and very oversold and suggest there is little downside from current levels on GDX. This potential bullish signal could develop this month. The intermediate picture is nearing a bullish signal. Long GDX at 57.01.
Sold CGR at 2.18 on 3/10/11= gain 75%. Long CGR at 1.24 on 5/11/09. Long MNEAF 2.80 on 3/3/11 (sold 2.95 gain 5%). Long on US Silver (ussif) at .62 on 2/17/11(sold 4/18/11 at .74 for 19% gain). We are long GLD at 134.43 (stop 145). The smaller gold stocks should outperform the larger gold stocks. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. Sold AVARF on 12/13/10 at 4.06 for 61.1% gain; Long AVARF at 2.52 on 4/26/10. Sold VGZ at 2.93 for 39% gain. We are long MFN at 9.83 on 11/11/10 (sold 16.25 for 65% gain). Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Sold RDNAF at .57 on 1/19/11 for 27% gain; Long RDNAF at .45 on 10/29/10. Long IROG at .52 on 5/10/10. Long PMU at .20 on 4/6/10( sold 10% gain). We will hold as our core position in NXG, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long KRY at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long NXG average of 2.26. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.
http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html
George.
Trade at YOUR OWN: Risk, DueDiligence, RiskTolerance. Trading Responsiblity is Totally Yours!
You are Spending Your Money, no one elses! Be Wise, Be Thinking, Be Deliberate!
Be Lucky, Chichi2
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