When the REALLY big one is going to happen:
(This is just my opinion. Form your own judgment:)
Connecting the dots - What we saw in the long lead up to the conference was pre announcements of a CC, the announcement of a CC, and a series of PR's before it. All of that appeared to be a planned buildup to some big event in much the same way that was done last October. In that case the long buildup was because of the time delay between making genetic modifications in the silkworm and in being able to test the silk (you have to wait for the worms to reach the cocoon stage.)
But, unlike the first series, in which the predicted timing was accurate (predicted mid to late September and it was Sept 29) but this time there were delays: An April 20 announcement of a CC “tentatively scheduled for mid May” but then mid may went by and nothing. Finally, a bit late (but he did say “tentatively” on 25 May the long awaited announcement of a CC (with a similar time delay as happened in last October. That previous time delay we now know was due to the time it took from testing genetic modifications in the silkworm and being able to test the silk.
As it played out this time we first got the 31 May PR about the Monster Hybrids, highly significant news about great progress towards commercialization of the Gen1 Monster Silk.
Then came the 6 June announcement of the Appointment of Dr Kaplan to the KBLB Scientific Advisory Board. Highly significant: the world's formost reseacher on worm silk, worm silk protein and its uses. And all this was just in the lead up to ….what?
Then came the 8 June PR – timed with the pattern that some of us here had predicted and expected.
But WAIT! It was only a non-event, just a reference to an interview with a stock newsletter. I commented at the time that this appeared to be a replacement filler for something that couldn't be released because of some unexpected delay (and now it's apparent just exactly what (but not why) the delay was.
Some important things were discussed during the CC, all of it highly positive, IMHO but there was a strong sense that something was missing. There was: During the CC Kim noted that the zinc fingers had just arrived and that they expected results within a week.
Connect the dots: IMHO,KBLB had expected the zinc fingers to arrive a lot sooner and, based on that expected timing set up the series of pre announcement, announcement, PRs and CC with that in mind, much the same way as last October and with much the same timing for the very good reason that they were both based on the time delay between testing the success of genetic modifications (which can be done when the worm is only about 8 cells) and the cocoon stage where the silk can be tested.
Something, we will probably never know what, apparently delayed the arrival of the zinc fingers. He said during the CC that they had just arrived that day. That, IMHO, is what delayed the timing so much. That's why the “filler” PR about a stock newsletter interview and why there wasn't more in the CC.
Kim had expected to have been able to make the genetic modifications by the time of the CC (note that he said during the CC that it would take about a week: “we should have results in a week”) and expected to be able to announce the success of the genetic modifications and that the silk would be tested in a few weeks (like last time).
So he's said that in about a week they should have results from the ZF modifications. Knowing the excellent track record of zinc fingers there is an extremely high probability of complete success.That's a big one, indeed. And then in a few weeks they can test the silk from the GM modifications. If, as expected, it's pure spider silk then that is the really really big one, and KBLB will no longer be a penny stock. Hello NASDAQ.
As I often note here, those investing in high tech stocks should be able to accept minor delays and take them in stride because such delays are inherent in the very nature of research, and I've noted the consequences of being caught out when the big news hits. Those who closed out their positions may be lucky this time: it will probably take awhile for the market to connect the dots (but don't count on it) so maybe they'll get a brief opportunity to buy back in. News of successful GMs with the zinc fingers could well cause a gap up that won't get filled. News of the production of pure spider silk absolutely positively, IMHO, will cause a gap up that will never get filled. Pure spider silk has been a long sought after "impossible to achieve" "holy grail" of biotech for a long time and has a massive potential market. If that doesn't get an unfilled gap nothing does.
Also note that in biotechnology there are never any guarantees. Further delays could happen. The genetic modifications might not have the expected results (however, considering that the worms have already produced silk with some spider silk protein in it, IMHO, failure is highly unlikely. All the GMs need to accomplish is to remove the gene for worm silk protein and that should do the job).
IMHO this is one of the best risk to reward ratios I've ever seen. But never use margin or borrowed money or money that you can't afford to leave in more than a short period of time, especially not money you need for bills that are due. Nothing is certain. Never put more money in any one stock than you can afford to lose.
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