Replies to post #11682 on Short Term Trading Member Forum

[tnm]

Aire:

If it's any consolation, I don't know enough about it to agree/disagree wuth you. I spend as much time reading and trying to understand your posts as I do studying the course. Your analysis is more relevant to today's markets. This is coming from one who has little experience in trading. But I've noted other indicators as well, although I'm more inclined to regard cycles as the best indicator, once I've gotten the phasing down.

Cheers,

Tom

[Toppcats]

Airedale - I can't disagree with the sector data you have posted, however, E-wave is saying something else at this time. It is interesting though, that the markets have continued to move downward, yet there are sectors that you are noting which appear to have made their 40 week lows. I do note that the market response, post - 40 week nested low with larger cycles in an 'up' position, has not acted as one would expect save for a single run-up of significance. This would seem to indicate that the bounce off the nested low of those stocks/sectors you are looking at has been weaker than expected or is being offset elsewhere. If the 40 week nested low is yet to be seen I believe that Mr. Cash posts a tentative target of ~spx 1132. My target (non-Hurst) is an overshoot of this at ~1110 area with the possibility of a cascading decline into the end of May. This week should be helpful to sort things out as option expiry 'could' lead into the markets rallying which would support your view or continued decline, possibly significant decline, which would likely require sector re-evaluation.

Regards,
Gary

[mr_cash4]

aire, re. your comments, if you have read mine you would have known that:

(1) ideally I was still expecting the (G2) 40w cycle low to arrive late May / early June

(2) but that I allowed that last week was where the G2 40w cycle low could bottom at its earliest & in the neighborhood of the 5w cycle low, and I posted that I was going to go long near/at the 5w cycle low just in case it also markes the G2 40w cycle low (and I caught part of the move with QQQQ options)

Furthermore, the indexes have been harder to read from cyclical standpoint lately due to various sectors bottoming at different times, hence "scrambling" the cyclical picture of the indexes. That's why I started looking at individual stocks to expand the number of tradeable instruments so that I can try to make money on other stocks (options) when I am not sure what the indexes are doing. Hence I posted last week a number of stocks that I found follow the cyclical model and have a great liquidity and great volatility.

Therefore, I am sorry that you feel that there has not been enough discussion about the correct phasings, but I did NOT see what else I could add to this discussion because the situation is NOT clear; and I also went another way by looking at (options) on individual stocks because the indexes have gotten a bit more difficult to trade - so, in summary, right now I am just trying to trade without really worrying exactly what the correct phasing of indexes are.

just my $0.02.

[Blackbelt1]

Aire, what is your tolerance for a percentage loss when setting stops?

Looking at weekly chart of $NYA, we are primed and loaded for a rally, but the fuse has not yet been lit. A close above 7060, in my view, will clear up any issues about the 40-week low being in.

Still, I see it could go either way with the 40-week being in--or not.

Black