Replies to post #8410 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[BTH]

Hey, I'd be perfectly fine with it.

I, however, just do not see that happening until a few years, or at least, until ARIA was WELL into a Phase 3 head-to-head trial with Sprycel or Tasigna....

In fact, I predict if Ponatinib is successful in PACE, and ARIA eventually has a market-cap over +$2 billion, large pharma, the bumbling idiots that they are, could very well pay $5 billion for the company, years down the line.

[bellweather1]

Buying-

Agree with Don and biotech_researcher that the news from the UK is a harbinger of things to come.

As governments put increasing pressure on the Pharma industry to justify new drug approvals, less and less of them will make the grade and win approval for expensive new treatments.

However, ariad's ponatinib(and probably 113) definitely will, which makes ariad a much more valuable franchise in the industry than it would otherwise be.

Therefore, buyout interest(if not direct or successful action), by NVS and/or BMY, would appear to be a forgone conclusion.

Apart and aside from simply protecting their own franchises in the short run, they, above all others, appreciate the intermediate to longer-term value of Pona in CML, AML, etc.(not to mention 113).

In view of all the above, a multi-billion buyout effort is well within the range of possibility/probability.

And since I have confidence in the market to "ultimately" recognize the obvious,I've taken this opportunity to purchase more Jan12 calls.

Despite the negative action the last few days, the support at about 8(both technically and fundamentally) looks very good to me.

Best,

bw