Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[DonShimoda]

do you really think it's likely of BMY or NVS spending a couple of billion (or more) on ARIA because they're afraid of ARIA running a front-line trial?

I wouldn't be so dismissive of the possibility. With over $4 Billion in worldwide sales, I believe Gleevec is NVS second best selling drug. So, no, it wouldn't surprise me if they decided to spend "a couple of billion", as you put it, to protect their franchise, especially when you consider that Gleevec is coming off patent in 2015, which is why,imo, NVS is pushing Tasigna. However,as was posted here UK's NICE http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=62815739 may not cover Tasigna:

“When we recommend the use of a very expensive treatments, we need to be confident that they bring sufficient additional benefit to justify their cost,” NICE Chief Executive Officer Andrew Dillon said in the statement. Evidence supporting the use of Sprycel, Tasigna and high-dose Glivec in the hard-to-treat form of the disease “is very weak,” he said."

Imo, this only makes ponatinib even more valuable to a company like NVS or BMY. Whether they are actually willing to pull the trigger or not, who knows, but I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss it out of hand.