Replies to post #8363 on Atlantic Power & Infrastructure Corp. (AWSL)

[Realityhurts]

I wasn't referring to anything but the fact that a company must file quarterly statements with the SEC if they have over 500 shareholders. The dark status is revoked when that number is breached. Perhaps AWSL has largely foreign shareholders thus evading the jurisdiction of the SEC in that regard, could be the reason.


Warburg, I didn't say they were lying, I just said, with all that in mind that they are required by law to file 10Q's and 10K's with the SEC when the shareholder amount reaches a certain point, it's surprising that they advertise the fact. But, lIke i said, there is a possibility that most of the shareholders are foreign thus, keeping them in the clear for the time being or, at least out of SEC jurisdiction in that affair.


Do you remember the stink the Facebook Goldman Sachs deal raised? It was over the same issue.

[Realityhurts]

To be fair, I hope that AWSL gets the contracts and becomes a billion dollar company, it will help the other Trahan companies substantially.


Would I short AWSL here? No, just not worth the effort at this point and there's always the risk of a severe upside surprise.


Would I buy it here? No, I don't feel confident enough in it's eventual success as a risk/reward play at this point. Doesn't mean that it won't succeed, I just don't feel like the current risk/reward factor is appropriate at this pps. I would actually buy the other Trahan related companies if I felt that AWSL was on the cusp of success, the spillover will be much more lucrative there if it indeed happens.


Lastly, even though my respect level is quite low at the moment for all involved in these companies, I do hope that they aquit themselves admirably. Perhaps we should support them, there are many many reasons why people have lost respect possibly, because they feel like everything was wrongly represented at the time of the investment. Apparently now there are alias's who have no idea of how these companies were presented by IR and GT at the time, all I will say is, it really has ticked off a lot of people who ended up stuck, money tied up in a enterprise next to worthless. Not all blame lies with the managerial side, no, not at all.


It just means that, now, the trust that management has a clue or knows what's happening when so many really dumb moves were made, stupid business decisions that cost shareholders dearly, is badly shaken. If the management here or at MEVT feel like shareholders should worship their every move, they are sorely mistaken. They used up every bit of credibility, it will be necessary to rebuild and restore the confidence that the overall market had in them. Because, right now, there is next to none out there.


Believe or not believe me, it's ok. The reality is, I'm not the one who matters. What I'm saying is true, if they can't accept or believe it, well, it just shows we're that much further from confidence returning in their abilities.



The FIT deal will be and would be a major stepping stone, I do look forward to that day happening sometime.

[diagonal]

Putting aside all the conspiracy theories regarding this company and its management team, I am shocked that everyone is still bickering now that we have an actual data point that can be used to value this company.

And to this end, touting $200M in potential revenue (over 20 years BTW) to justify owning this stock is a complete obfuscation of the drivers of valuation. Firstly: what are the costs of generating this revenue? Who does it have to be shared with? You don't think the "channel partners" and building owners don't take a healthy cut? - without having to share in any of the costs mind you.

Additionally, holding a FIT contract isn't all that it's cracked up to be. The truth is that these are CONDITIONAL contracts and many, many, many folks out there are finding that their "contracts" become dead in the water due to the absolutely horrible state of Ontario's grid not actually being able to accommodate RE projects.

The REAL number to focus on is the measly 6MW of applications AWSL managed to get in over the last 1.5 years. If we take a reasonable back of the envelope number that $0.50/W goes to the developer, than this name is only worth $3M. Combined with the fact that some of these projects won't get built & all the misappropriation of wealth that will be going to insiders (that is PLAINLY their historical MO) and you can see that AWSL is only worth ~$0.05 per share. Oh yeah, and what happens if Hybridyne wins its lawsuit? Can you say insolvency-in-a-heartbeat?

Before you go back to C&W "leases" consider the fact that Ontario will likely kill the FIT program in October before anyone in the OPA looks at them (ie they are not even applications at this stage which would take another "any day any day any day" year to process).

And we're supposed to believe that this thing is a billion dollar company going to $5.00-$10.00 a share? What a joke...