MDF won't surprise me if they include tax in Q105...
the problem/question is will it surprise anyone else..
apparently you are right that it will surprise a lot of people, including Bobwins.. who apaprently trust the CPA (Mike Earley) rather than the new kid on the block (Stan)....
I tried to inform people of the possibilities and did get some convert in the MDF board who also now believe that in GAAP basis the income tax will be accessed in Q105.
I'm 100% (maybe I should say 99.99%) confident that the tax will be accessed. jsut because of common sense. and the concept of there's no free lunch (if you already record the tax benefit in Q$04, you can't double count the benefit)
My take GAAP earning will be $0.03-$0.04 which will be in line with my expectation but the stock will surely drop below $2.5 IMO. the only chance that it's not going down is if the most recent buys are institutional (strong hands) and they probably buy more into the weak (whoever sells at $2.5 they will pick it up.
There is a chance that 3-5 years down the road that this will be a $200M annual revenue company with $20M pre-tax profit (which means $13.3M in annual net income). hence the current PE will be just 10. Therefore in the long run there shouldn't be much risk on this company.
I'm not selling and I know I will regret it next week. but hopefully I will be thankful for not selling 3 years down the road.
I have difficulty buying back stock that I have sold.
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