Bolivia also has serious questioning of resource rights. I would also think it will spread to other countries as a result. Africa would scare me off as well.
We’ve discussed Petrobras before and differ on that one. No matter what political label is attached to the Brazil’s president or for that matter, barring extremely unlikely circumstances, whoever becomes their president in the future, Brazil will never become Venezuela. Whether one thinks that Brazil controls PBR or (strange as it may sound) PBR controls Brazil, IMO we’re not going to see any equity-destroying nationalization. That goose is too strong and those eggs too golden to mess with.
Of course, this all might be wishful thinking, since I have so much PBR stock in my non-trading portfolio!
As far as China and Russia go, I think that the Russian government is so ruble-desperate that for the right price they’d sell the whole damn country or at least the naming rights: Russia-Brought-To-You-By-BP (I have to admit there are some signs of this changing, see this morning’s Bloomberg article:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-21/ruble-rises-to-strongest-since-2008-as-oil-lures-investors.html. I think I’ll post the whole thing later.)
On the other hand, it’s obvious that China’s ultimate goal is to buy the planet: Earth-Brought-To-You-By-China. :-)
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