Replies to post #32388 on Silver Falcon Mining Inc. (fka SFMI)

[MuchCompensation]

Thanks for the T/A chart HR.

MC

[RBKissMyAs]

It's not a bad place to take a gamble as nothing goes straight up or down, but for me, I need to see .12 hold before taking any action. If .12 breaks, you're gonna get a shot close to .07.

[boca_bobby]

Still lurking around here and I thought I might add my 2 cents worth on your chart.

First of all you state:

Keep in mind, nothing is guaranteed with TA so I wouldn't go buying on my analysis; however, we are working with probabilities. While I haven't specifically quantified this condition in my trading experience, I estimate the success in this kind of reversal occurs about 75% of the time. If the downtrend is really strong, it is subject to headfakes. In SFMI's case on the daily chart it has occurred successfully 3 out of 4 times as well.

Very good point indeed. I use nothing but charts for my entry and exit points but like any other method out there, it not 100%. I would like to know how many times you have seen this very exact set up to give you a 75% success rate at calling a reversal, but I digress.

You have taken a lot of time to draw up a nice a neat chart. And you give your arguments in a clear and concise method. Kudos to you for that.

Unfortunately, I see a discrepancy and more of an assumption on your part. I may be splitting hairs here but the past examples were the candles drop below the bottom bollie and the Stochastics went into oversold territory, we had an event that happened before the reversal actually happened.

That event was a reversal type of candle, like a hammer. Price should always dictate your very first thought about where and future forcasting may lead to. Today's candle was a "bearish engulfing" type. This is bad news in the short term. I see just a little more pain before this can hit a true support level.

Which brings me to my next point. If we believe price dictates all we need to know about a company {Basic premis of T/A), then it would stand to reason knowing support and resistance levels would serve us much better than any indicator could show us. Why? Well these are areas in the past where the Bulls or Bears have set up their camps and are prepared to stop any trend, be it bullish or bearish.

Between July and November of last year we see where .112 - .121 held as support 4 times. So a safer way to enter for those not in would be to watch for those levels and see when the reversal candle appears. Then wait an additional day for confirmation of a true reversal. Then jumping in is a lower risk than trying to just call out a bottom.

You and I may be saying the same thing in the long term and I just like to talk shop with another chartist. So I hope folks can use both of our experience and win big time.

Nice chart and good luck longs of SFMI

[Hurricane_Rick]

Not too shabby today. 2 key TA events occurred on the daily chart that are worth noting.

1) The close at .13 gave us a green bullish hammer (a close at .131 would've given us an even more bullish dragonfly doji). This is a moderately reliable indicator of a reversal. Sometimes it might take a few hammers to test the low before a reversal occurs and sometimes a hammer is rejected and the price continues to trade lower in a downtrend. That is why it is important to consider the bullish hammer with other factors on the chart that are indicating a potential bottom is at hand.

2) The Full Stochastics (STO) has been trading below 20 which is indicative of an oversold condition. Today there was a bullish crossover within the oversold territory which is also used to signal a reversal as I explained in my post from yesterday identifying this set-up.

I was a buyer today supporting the .126 bid based on my personal analysis that we are in a bottoming out phase and the chart is offering pretty good signals and confirmations of a reversal. I will buy more strongly tomorrow if there is another green candle with increasing volume in which the STO rises above 20 as that will further and more confidently indicate to me that we are reversing towards a bullish sentiment on the stock.

[loanwolf]

Nice call Rick, SFMI has bounced nicely thus far over the past 2 days.

Well thought ought post and plan, as the adl divergence has appeared to steer you in the proper direction.

Nicely done bro!

PS- appreciated the prior discussion