completely agree with you on vagaries of trial outcomes...there are lot of things at play: judges, quality of your lawyers, quality of opposition's lawyers, etc etc
but if MNTA's legal pos is not good to begin with, then it is highly unlikely that it would win..
anyway the point i am making is as an investor , at least i personally would like to completely understand the likelihood of 'reward or 'risk' event and then make an assessment from an investment perspective
so you said 75% chance of MNTA winning...i would like to know how came up with that ?