Momenta Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MNTA)

[tinkershaw]

that's general stuff..
Do you have specifics of the strengths in MNTA's case or weaknesses in TEVA's case as far as composition patent goes, from a legal perspective case ?

No. I have always found that if I have to get that detailed the investment is not worth making. The specific nitty details are mostly beyond anyone who has not read the depositions, done the legal research, knows what the witnesses are going to testify about, and understands the disposition of the judge.

Like with most investments, the fine tune details are more than we "passive" investors are going to have access to. And in the end that is why we settle for being a passive investors, so that we don't need to know these details. If I knew all these details I might just run away and hide my head in fear, or otherwise be unjustifiably overconfident. You just cannot win at an investment thinking you are outsmarting the market's intuition regarding the lawsuit and outsmarting the lawyers for both sides.

It is just not a place an individual investor can gain an advantage. At least, despite my profession, I have not found this to be an avenue that produces investment advantages vs. the market.

What is more valuable are issues like the doubt regarding tlovenox and mcopaxone. The best I can do with the lawsuit is what I laid out. I fully expect MNTA to prevail. I put it at 75%, but that 25% could be a doozy. I cannot invest in a lawsuit because it is just too unpredictable. I've seen the unthinkable happen far too often.

Lets take RMBS as an example. The result RMBS got depended almost solely on the venue they filed in. They got creamed in Virginia, and they creamed the other side in California.

Had RMBS not filed in the "rocket docket" in Virginia (and they had the choice) and just filed in California, RMBS share price might be multiples higher at this point. But the Virginia decision came out first (yes, I made a ton on RMBS. But I did not make it on the lawsuit. I made it on business fundamentals that it became patently obvious that Intel was coming out with the 820 chip for RDRAM. Board makers who could not afford to make the board otherwise were producing the boards and Samsung was investment a few billion in an RDRAM fab. The lawsuits (lets not go there).

Will MNTA be Rambused in this hearing? Doubt it, but the courtroom in Virginia for RMBS may have been an outlier that in biotech terms would create a false positive. MNTA could just by chance be in the wrong courtroom and there is no way to get around that particular risk.

Tinker
btw/The Richmond Virginia trial was a city where the Defendant was building a DRAM factory that would employ thousands of locals; the California victory was in Rambus's backyard (not that I think the home field played an issue with RMBS as they employed only a 100-200 employees, but it dang well made a difference in the Virginia case where thousands of jobs were at issue). Details like this can make billions of dollars worth of difference.