John. I agree that feb 15 was likely nominal 40 week low for oil and that the next 40 week will also be the 80 week low maybe sometime in jan 2012. It seems this past nominal 40 week ran a 'bit short.
what do you think of this as a labeliing of the 40/80 week lows? Sorry it is not a chart but an excel file.
I have 9/08 as a 40 week/80 week low. That date seemed to fit nicely with actual lows running 86-88 weeks better than the actual price low later that year in dec '08. Hurst might label the decline after 9/08 as a pseudotrend.
Bonds... I added to my bond position once more today. If this was the 2.5 week low it should hold for a while. If it does not hold I will likely sell a bit and wait.
Dollar... The dollar trend is very week. I exited my EUO several days ago. I am not sure where to label the 2.5 week low in the most recent downtrend. Breaking a 10 week low in the first 5 week cycle is very bearish.
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