Replies to post #45331 on Short Term Trading Member Forum

[SilentOne]

hi bubbleboy,



If I use Sentient Trader on a Nominal Hurst (NM) setting, here's what I get:

15/1/2007 40 , 80 week cycle low

1/28/2008 40 week cycle low (seems long)

2/23/2009 40, 80, week and 4.5 year low

25/9/2009 40 week cycle low

2/15/2010 40 , 80 week cycle low

I don't particularly like using ST with the NM setting for oil. I think the cycles are longer periods. (eg. 44/45 vs 40 wks).

Yes, 2008 was a pseudotrend on the way up and on the way down as I see it. But the most important thing is what to call the Feb 2009 low. I see it as 4.5 year low for oil (actually runs more like 60 months IMO). If true and we have right translated highs, then oil is in a bullish cycle. Next major low is due early 2012 as you say. I have no idea how and where crude tops out this year.

cheers,

john

P.S. I always thought that this original work made more sense for phasing oil (the low in 2007 being some sort of straddle).

[SilentOne]

bubbleboy,

Regarding the USD, gold, bonds:

Metals and currencies - gold/silver are in blowoff mode. No way to predict price action near term. A near term USD bounce would do some damage. Larger bounce may not come until May/June.

http://www.ireallytrade.com/TVStation/LarryTV.html

Bonds. I added again to a small position late last week to the Canadian bond side.

cheers,

john