Spokeshave, Re: At 93W peak, P4 seems pretty much topped out on 130nm. I know that Intel claims that they will release a 3.2 and even a 3.4GHz on 130nm, but I just don't see how, without significantly greater cooling requirements. I'll believe it when I see it.
Current cooling solutions are capable of dissipating power up to 120W. The current 3.06GHz Pentium 4 only needs to have cooling solutions capable of dissipating 81.8W (max power is irrelevant to system designers). That gives the core plenty of headroom in frequency before they run into problems with cooling.
Re: Meanwhile, *if* AMD does what they say they will, Opteron and Athlon64 will debut at a PR of 3400. So, *if* Intel can get a 3.4GHz P4 out on 130nm, AMD and Intel will be pretty much at parity. Otherwise AMD could take the performance lead again.
AMD absolutely needs the performance lead to rekindle any kind of interest back into their products. Without it, I doubt Hammer has much more of a chance than Athlon had. With it, they may only have the lead for a few months before Intel comes out with Prescott. Then again, Hammer may outperform Prescott, too. Not much is known about how Hammer will perform, but performance need not correlate with model numbers. AMD has taken the opportunity many times to exaggerate the benefits of their model numbering system.
Re: even if there are no 64 bit apps available, AMD will have a marketing advantage.
That remains to be seen. Everybody seems to be expecting a huge advantage over just two numbers at the end of the processor name, but it depends on if AMD can communicate those numbers as a benefit to the end user. With almost zero software availability, it may be difficult.
Re: The big question then will be who gets 90nm volume first.
There is no question. Intel will be first by at least 6 months. People have had themselves convinced that this would be different for .13u, and look how late AMD was with that. Intel was at least 12 months ahead in offering volume production on .13u. Wouldn't you think that translates to an advantage at the subsequent generation?
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