Intel Corp (INTC)

[spokeshave]

wbmw: With a year of head start, Intel may have an advantage going into 90nm production, even with the risk of strained silicon.

Don't forget low-k, which, according to some on this board, was as big an influence on AMD's Hammer delays as SOI.

It's going to be interesting. At 93W peak, P4 seems pretty much topped out on 130nm. I know that Intel claims that they will release a 3.2 and even a 3.4GHz on 130nm, but I just don't see how, without significantly greater cooling requirements. I'll believe it when I see it. 90nm has been pushed out to the end of next year, and as such, we probably won't see volume parts until 2004. Meanwhile, *if* AMD does what they say they will, Opteron and Athlon64 will debut at a PR of 3400. So, *if* Intel can get a 3.4GHz P4 out on 130nm, AMD and Intel will be pretty much at parity. Otherwise AMD could take the performance lead again. Additionally, even if there are no 64 bit apps available, AMD will have a marketing advantage. The big question then will be who gets 90nm volume first. AMD will only be doing a design shrink, but Intel will be adding strained silicon and low-k into the mix. Clearly Intel has the greatest challenge ahead, though, AMD seems to find great challenges where they are least expected.