Also Choctaw - from GoHaynesville: Jeff has posted many interesting tidbits over last few months.
Reply by jeff boler 1 hour ago
I believe that my last comment was misinterpreted, due to my poor writing skills. The point that I was pushing was that Chesapeake has no way of knowing how their North Louisiana Wells will be performing decades down the road. I was referring to Chesapeake's arrogance. It was not my intent to say that any participants of this board were arrogant for applying Chesapeake's estimates, though I don't think such an exercise would yield accurate numbers. That said, reservoir engineering is very similar to astronomy in that anything within an order of magnitude is considered close...
I agree with Paul that the natural fracture system is key to making the geology of the Buena Vista Project so attractive. The natural fractures as previously stated will provide excess storage capacity and permeability, both of which are quite valuable and rare in reservoirs of this type. Also, I speculate that the natural fracture system will provide a unique stage for a synthetic frac-job. The post-completion drainage basin for these wells could be quite extensive.
The pore-pressure of the reservoir is another unique aspect which vastly increases storage capacity. The pores of the shale and natural fracture volume will hold more gas than it would under lesser pressures, as it is more compressed. It is important to remember that natural gas exists as a liquid in the reservoir, but liquid methane is a compressible fluid - If I remember correctly this is governed by the Rackett Equation. In addition to another means of increasing the reservoir storage capacity, the pressure will also push the natural gas through smaller pores and tighter fractures than would be possible under lesser pressures. This will also lead to an increased size of the well's drainage basin.
The greater the size (volume) of the drainage basin of a particular well, the longer it will take for the reservoir pressure to deplete. This will lend for flatter decline curves with respect to production rates and fewer wells required to drain the reservoir. Also, a higher percentage of the 'Free Gas' will be recoverable.
In summary, both the storage capacity and size of drainage basins are going to be uniquely favorable to high, prolonged production. Fewer wells will be required to produce the leasehold, which will increase the profitability of the project.
I maintain that with all of the information avaliable to the architects of this project (everything from cuttings to well-logs), ground would have never been broken on the Burkley-Phillips#1 unless the numbers added up to profit. Profit at current gas prices...
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