This sell off is purely technical and has nothing to do with the quality of the longs. When the stock broke down from the wedge the other day it became a "sure thing" for shorts. However, short positions will be transient here as there is likely a looming suitor(s) should the valuation here get too out of line with the reality of likely 2 approvals in 18 mos including a future (IMHO) first line CML drug.
Entirely agree. There's so many people here who said "the gap will never fill", now it's "ok, the gap will fill, but not for long."
Just like, "it will never hit 4.50", good luck with that. Any large shareholder can bury this thing in the blink of an eye. If they want the chart to work out to the 200 DMA, they'll do it.
58% institutional ownership = most people are "all in". You CANNOT get FMR to buy more because they already own 15% of the company and have committed TWICE now not to go over that 15% (probably because it's going to trigger some buyout provision in ARIA by-laws). Who's gonna step up to the plate? I don't know. BUT, if this giant pink pig doesn't have some support on Tuesday a.m. in the pre-market, there's going to be a fast WHOOSHING sound of stop-losses triggered which will more than likely work their way down to 5.25 in an blink of an eye.
Just my opinion. But, when you have all the momentum drawn out in a chart like this, I've seen it before. The pig get's buried.
Shorts are hammering this thing now because the chart broke. There was a battle between longs and shorts in the 6.30s and the longs got buried. Shorts won. They can do whatever they want now, and I have a feeling that any real long understands this and will not support the stock until 5.25-5.50 area (depending on what your definition of 'gap' is).
I'm very disappointed I didn't dump all my stock the other day. Very disappointed. I think I'm most disappointed in the way the stock didn't follow through (typical ARIA) while other biotechs just run and never look back. Pona is the real driver now (as usual, us shareholders play the waiting game). Ridaforolimus is just a nothing to the institutions it would seem....
FWIW...from a longer term prospective. The chart looks great. But, guess what? ALL charts looked great and then the financial markets blew up and went to hell a couple of years ago, and same thing happened last May with the flash crash. That's the big concern with the long-term here. Because, if this Federal Reserve facade ends, they're going to valuate stocks like ARIAD a LOT different, and instead of a $20 stock when Pona results are out, we'll be looking at a $10 stock. At $750 million, Ariad is stretched BIGTIME in value considering Merck hasn't said diddly about SUCCEED trial results and all we have is Berger's "word" (LOL). I wouldn't be too concerned about my holding in this pig right now, if I have 100% faith that the financial markets will be stable in a year....I don't.
I liquidated 5% of my position today, when/if it falls to 5.25 I will use all of the money I generated today tha to buy either $6 or $7 Aug 2011 Calls Then once asco happens I'll cash those babies in for what will be a nice profit.
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