Replies to post #162 on Universal Travel Group (fka UTRA)

[Stream205]

Natty: Right on about CTRPs effect on UTA.


Natty, you really put a great spin on the CTRP news tonight with your tremendous article in SA last week

Hard to see how UTA does not move higher from here on the very strong package deal news from CTRP that certainly will apply to UTA going forward.

[viking86]

Here is a (probably bold) projection of UTA's Q4 rev based on the latest CTRP's numbers. CTRP reported a yoy increase of 108% for its package tour (PT) Q4 rev. Let's assume that UTA will report a similar yoy increase of its PT rev which represents 69% of its total rev over the past 9 months. For simplicity, let's assume UTA's PT quarterly Q4 rev has grown 100% yoy and represents the same 69% of total quarterly rev. What rev can we expect for Q4'10?

Q4'09 total rev = 34.2M
Q4'09 PT rev = 23.6M = 69%

Q4'10 PT rev = 2x 23.6 = 47.2M (E)
Q4'10 total rev = 47.2/0.69 = 68.4M (E)

That also means a yoy increase of 100% of Q4 rev, resulting in a total 2010 rev of 177.5M compared to guidance of 150M.

If I use the same net margin (19%) and fd sharecount (20.37M) as last Q, I get an eps of $0.64 for Q4 and $1.50 for the year compared to about $1.40 based on company's guidance rev of 150M.