Universal Travel Group (fka UTRA)

[viking86]

Here is a (probably bold) projection of UTA's Q4 rev based on the latest CTRP's numbers. CTRP reported a yoy increase of 108% for its package tour (PT) Q4 rev. Let's assume that UTA will report a similar yoy increase of its PT rev which represents 69% of its total rev over the past 9 months. For simplicity, let's assume UTA's PT quarterly Q4 rev has grown 100% yoy and represents the same 69% of total quarterly rev. What rev can we expect for Q4'10?

Q4'09 total rev = 34.2M
Q4'09 PT rev = 23.6M = 69%

Q4'10 PT rev = 2x 23.6 = 47.2M (E)
Q4'10 total rev = 47.2/0.69 = 68.4M (E)

That also means a yoy increase of 100% of Q4 rev, resulting in a total 2010 rev of 177.5M compared to guidance of 150M.

If I use the same net margin (19%) and fd sharecount (20.37M) as last Q, I get an eps of $0.64 for Q4 and $1.50 for the year compared to about $1.40 based on company's guidance rev of 150M.