xxxx, it's good to see that MSFT is seeing more demand for MediaEdition PCs. If the analysts are right, 60-70M TPMs will ship this year.
Up to now, the bulk of the TPM volume has been IBM. IBM shipped 10.5M PCs in 2004 out of a worldwide market of 177-184M(depending on IDC, Gartner or other sources) Let's assume that IBM shipped TPMs on everything in 2004, that means they were just short of 1M PC's per month with TPMs in 2004. HP with just a few models and Fujitsu and Toshiba simply by their small size, contributed very little to the 2004 TPM total. Adding in the others, at BEST 12-15M TPM shipped in 2004, for a monthly run of 1-1.25Million.
PC estimates for 2005 are in the 190-199Million unit range with TPM estimates being 60-70M.
So far in 2005, IBM continues to ship, HP is adding more models and Dell beginging in March, is starting to ship. Like others, I think the bulk of 2005 shipments will come with the 1.2 TPMS. Assuming TPMS (because of Dell and increasing HP models) are now shipping at 2M per month, which is almost double the 2004 numbers, that only gets to 12M TPM's in the first 6 months of 2005. If you uses IDC's forecast of 60M, that means another 48M will ramp up in the 2nd half(which is every other PC out of the 100M that are likely to sell in the 2nd half of 2005). I think the catalyst for that will be TPM 1.2.
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