Replies to post #278 on China-Biotics, Inc. (CHBT)

[viking86]

Tony Regans made an interesting point about Pope possibly converting instead of redeeming the note:

http://wefe5433.blogspot.com/

[viking86]

Comparison of Nevaders's revised eps projections with Wefe's projections( based on Wefe's Nov blog "Updated CHBT spreadsheet):

Nevader just revised his eps forecasts for the next 2-3 years downward to account for a slower rampup of bulk production (3 years for Phase 1, 2.5 years for Phase 2 of Qingpu based on his exchanges with CEO, production start at Phase 2 pushed back to Sep'11 vs. Mar'11 originally) and lower ASP ramps. Here is a comparison the original forecasts:

Wefe's projected eps for:

FY'11= 1.72, FY'12= 2.55, FY'13= 3.47

Nevader's projected eps for:

FY'11= 2.07, FY'12= 4.76, FY'13= 9.83, FY'14= 15.76


Comparison of the revised forecasts (as of Dec 20'10):

Wefe's projected eps for:

FY'11= 1.72, FY'12= 2.55, FY'13= 3.47

Nevader's projected eps for:

FY'11= 1.87, FY'12= 3.23, FY'13= 5.07*

* the FY'13 forecast is not given in Nevader's article but in his reply to Bogus07's comment. Not sure if this includes some of Yangling's production as in his original model.

Bottomline: we can fairly safely assume that eps for FY'11 will be about $2, for FY'12 eps will be about $3 (range 2.55-3.23 b/w the 2 forecasts with possible upside as noted by Nevader. For FY'13 there is a larger variance in eps ($3.5 to $5+) although I personally am now more inclined towards Nevader's forecast of $5 since his model takes into account more recent developments (like Pope's note redemption, the expansion of retail into the pan-Beijing market and addition of 14 new bulk customers) which preceded Wefe's model.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/242696-china-biotics-my-top-stock-pick-for-2011

http://wefe5433.blogspot.com/