China-Biotics, Inc. (CHBT)

[viking86]

Wefe's updated CHBT spreadsheet: here is Wefe's (Tony Regans') updated spreadsheet that took into account the most recent Q2'FY11 results and company's guidance per 10Q report. The spreadsheet also includes other conservative assumptions re. projected revenue and earnings for the next 3 years (incl. FY2013 that ends in March 2013). It does not however include any projected revenue from the new Yangling project and thus yields much more conservative earnings compared to Nevader's most recent model. Here is a comparison of projected eps for the next 3-4 FY acc. to the 2 models:

Wefe's projected eps for:

FY'11= 1.72, FY'12= 2.55, FY'13= 3.47

Nevader's projected eps for:

FY'11= 2.07, FY'12= 4.76, FY'13= 9.83, FY'14= 15.76



Wefe's updated CHBT spreadsheet:
First a correction. In my previous post I said that free cash flow for the quarter was $6 million. That was an error in the press release. That is actually the figure for the six months ended Sep 30th. They have it correct in the table at the end of the press release and in the 10Q, it was just incorrect in that one paragraph in the press release. I was in a rush this morning to leave and just noticed it now when updating my spreadsheet.

Here is my updated CHBT spreadsheet. I kept FY Q3 Phase I bulk at 18.8 tons (75 ton run rate) and FY Q4 Phase I bulk at 25 tons (100 ton run rate), and modeled a further slight decline in ASPs to $650/kg. I simply modeled retail sales at up 15% yoy for Q3 and Q4. Using those numbers I arrive at $118.5 million in revenue for this fiscal year. I simply assumed that net margins will be slightly higher than this quarter's level to arrive at FY EPS at $1.72. I included historical G&A, R&D lines, etc, if you want to use your own assumptions for those items. I have Q3 at $32.2 million in revenue and EPS of $.46. I have Q4 at $37.8 million in revenue and EPS of $.53.

I have also updated my estimates for fiscal years 2012 and 2013. I modeled a further decline in ASPs for Phase I product (the more generic strains) to $600/kg. I also pushed out the commencement of production from Phase II to Q2, with a modest 5 ton production and then a similar ramp-up as Phase I. I have ASPs for Phase II product (the more customized strains and blended strains) at $800/kg. Using what I feel are these more conservative assumptions, I still arrive at FY 2012 revenue of $189 million, which would be roughly a 60% yoy increase, and 2012 fiscal year EPS of $2.65. I expect that when CHBT reports this fiscal year's Q4 results, they will again guide to '50% year over year revenue growth' for the next fiscal year.




Links to the original models:

http://wefe5433.blogspot.com/

http://seekingalpha.com/article/225301-china-biotics-shifts-focus-to-fast-growing-chinese-food-ingredients-industry