Replies to post #3258 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[gdollasign]

Well BTH, it might have been a better statement to say they THEY (MRK) would know by the end of November. AND by the way, HB wouldnt know within 6 months when the announcement would be made....he has no rights to the drug with regards to this particular situation so anything he says is entirely a guess on his part.

[bellweather1]

A Liar?-Far be it from any of us to call Harvey that.

But to say that the results will be out(i.e. reported) first quarter 2011 is quit different from suggesting that the results wouldn't be known (by merck, ariad, other priviledged insiders) well before. Such, as someone who is as cynical as you are knows, is the way of the world.

Having said that, I tend to side with the posters who note that statistics are essentially an immediate science(at least in term of their results in conjunction with the application of algorithms that have been in place in anticipation of their application for a long time).

So, I believe "they" essentially know right now, and that as what they know leaks out, we'll see the consequences in the marketplace.

What those results are however(at least in terms of market reaction) isn't yet evident.

"They" are, apparently, playing it pretty close to the vest, as they obviously must.

But fairly soon I would expect to see some sort of landslide up, or (in the case of a disappointment) some gradual/choppy errosion down into the very high 2s-low 3s.

2da, Congratulations on your new moderator role, and thanks for being willing to do the work!

Best regards all,

bw