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vidpok45

11/01/10 8:48 PM

#3076 RE: BTH #3075

as you say, the reason for the delay is that the progression is taking longer than anticipated.... it certainly would appear to this novice that there is a pretty good chance the progression is taking longer than anticipated because the drug is doing exactly as promised. Or perhaps the "placebo effect" has activated the patients own immune response to limit the progression. As a medical provider, I have some knowledge of the very real effect a positive attitude can have on healing. However, I prefer to believe (as biased as I am as a longtime investor) that in this case it is unlikely that the "placebo effect" is responsible for the delay in the divergence of the arms. More likely, the fact that this population was more stable to begin with and therefore the divergence would take longer to be realized than had been expected. In any event, we will know soon enough. As a Rida failure will likely drop the price by about half, my plan like many others here I am sure, will be to take full advantage of that scenario by buying as much stock as I can if and when that occurs knowing very well that within a year the price will be at a multiple of that level, with a successful 534 trial. Pretty much a win/win if you ask me, with a bit of pain for a short time if rida fails. Good luck longs, vid.

exwannabe

11/01/10 11:01 PM

#3077 RE: BTH #3075

Re:"Merck is NOT jerking it around for any reason"

Clearly true, only the tin foil hat crowd would think otherwise.

The Nth event will trigger the process that is :

. Scrub the dataset. Make damn certain everything is correct before it is unblinded.

. Lock the dataset. At this point it can no longer be changed.

. Unblind the trial. Open up the magic safe that has which patient is in which arm.

. Do the math.

It can take some time, but Merck will not slow this down. And they will certainly not rush it.