I'd go with your theory if I were you. I don't think I will, possibly because I have more risk tolerance or my analysis of the situation leads me to believe the risk is less than you seem to attribute. Anyway you play, it's you're decision, I'm not trying to persuade you to buy.
I respect your 4 year history with this stock and your attention to detail on the most recent move , but I think the point is that each news event now brings us closer to the potential big one and I don't think you can use CLYW history as a guide to future behavior specifically because the nature of the potential event we are focusing on (if/when it occurs) will be materially and extremely different than all previous events. A significant revaluation will occur and IMO it will happen fairly rapidly.
News 
Market Data 
Discover 
