Replies to post #422 on Natcore Technology Inc (NTCXF)

[maybe_this_time]

This little speculation is just regarding the first little factory they are currently building. Was looking over MEMC Electronic Materials, Inc. (WFR) for fun, and it's feeling like this initial factory could do 50-100 million a year in business. 1/3 profit margin x 55% means around 9-18 million in cash flow for Natcore the parent. That should really help them progress in 2011. Ok enough speculation. Going for my first pickup today.

[JB3729]

You are confused regarding the business model of Natcore Technology (Zhuzhou) LTD, formerly Natcore China. They do not produce tons of film. They fabricate and sell LPD process equipment and sell the chemicals for the process.

Natcore explained their LPD business as selling the razor, razor blades and the right to shave. The razor is the LPD process equipment. The razor blades are the chemicals used to grow the AR film on silicon. The right to shave is the license from Natcore Technology (Zhuzhou).

When a silicon solar panel manufacturer decides that they want to grow the AR coating on their solar panels using the chemical bath LPD process, instead of using multi-million dollar, high temperature ovens, they sign a licensing agreement with Natcore Technology (Zhuzhou). After the licensing agreement is signed, Natcore Technology (Zhuzhou) will sell them the AR growth equipment and chemicals. Selecting the LPD process allows the manufacturers to use up to 66% less silicon in their panels.

Natcore hopes to license their LPD process to every silicon solar cell manufacturer on earth. When the high efficientcy tandem cell is developed, it will be constructed using the LPD process and licenced to silicon solar cell manufacturers.

Chuangke Silicon LTD, a partner of Natcore in Natcore Technology (Zhuzhou) LTD, is expected to be the first company to license the LPD process. And thus, the first to purchase equipment and chemicals.

As far as revenue is concerned, Natcore put out a number of $100 per panel for the tandem cell panels. I don't know what their licensing fee, equipment, and chemicals charges will be for the AR coating only.

You may have mistaken this joint venture and product with Natcore acquisition Vanguard's flexible thin film patented technology. We are waiting for Natcore to develop this business. This is where Kodak or another partner may team with Natcore.

This is my understanding of the business model. I'm certainly open to any additions and corrections.

I hope this helps.

JB