Hi Karel, I am just getting familiar with Taled's thinking myself. And am thus in no position to judge or offer advice on it. Basically it seems to me (at this stage) that he is a pessimist who has rationalized his emotional decision by using lot's of formula and some clever reasoning.
Mind you: I don't want to discredit him, I have a high respect for people like him.
He has witnessed seeing his country going from a prosperous future to an utter state of devastation and despair in a matter of a few years. Something like that will affect you, no matter what reasoning powers you have.
(For those who don't know Taleb: Lebanon)
As far as I have been able to make out, he goes for the dark side: (way) out of the money (leap) puts. When the puts expire worthless (as they often do) he simply reloads. The bulk of his money is sitting in T-bills. (Yes, I suspect that he must be very rich now, hence his rising star.)
Best,
Rien.
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